The storm forecasting center is getting a bit more confident on how strong and where thunderstorms maybe this afternoon and evening. Part of Southern Michigan Warned of Significant Serious weather.
latest heavy weather forecast from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) released at 8:24 am on Monday morning, shows in highest chance of heavy thunderstorms in a corridor through southwest and south-central Lower Michigan.
General Severe Thunderstorm Forecast for Monday 8 am to Tuesday 8 am. Orange area called “improved risk.” (source: Storm Prediction Center)
orange shade area south of Muskegon-Detroit Line in the so-called “extended risk” area for heavy thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorm forecast also think of as a five-level forecast. Increased risk this is the third level on this five point scale.
The scenario we are expecting is a lump of thunderstorms develops today over southern Wisconsin. Then a storm is expected race southeast across southern Lower Michigan. This line of storms will probably only one a hundred miles long north South. Line of Storms can have spots that the Storm Prediction Center calls “destructive gusts.”
Here is the harsh weather prognosis is broken out for certain types of heavy weather.
first forecast for rectilinear gusts of wind. These strong gusts of wind come in in first 10 minutes of thunderstorm. black-hatched path from Muskegon and the southwestern shoreline of Lake Michigan to Ann Arbor and Detroit there are chance of Wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger. At 80 miles per hour, gusts of wind cause significant damage to buildings and can even break them. windows. is not sure rate, but if thunderstorms become severe, they can cause short, very strong gusts of wind.
Strong wind gusts forecast for Monday afternoon and Monday evening. Black hatched area has 10 percent chance of wind gust of 75 mph or faster.
There is also big enough risk of multiple tornadoes to be concerned withno just straight winds. Same area with in highest risk of strong gusts of wind also It has highest tornado risk.
Tornado chance forecast for Monday afternoon and Monday evening.
Large hail is possible, but not main concern at the moment.
Heavy hail forecast showing chance of one degrees in inches
THE TIME OF STRONG THUNDERS
thunderstorms should enter west side of Lower Michigan Sometime between 4:00 pm and 7:00 pm We don’t sure down up to an hour just for now. We will know what in early day. Then it will take about three hours for storms to track through the southern part of Lower Michigan.
Here are the cities in in highest risk of heavy thunderstorms: Muskegon, Grand Haven, Holland, South Haven, Benton Harbor, Grand Rapids, Battle Creek, Kalamazoo, Lansing, Jackson, Coldwater, Adrian and Ann Arbor.
North of Grand Rapids and Flint area still has chance of a strong gust of wind, but should to be more isolated and not so strong.
Storms may weaken some as they move in the Detroit area but it will also watch me.
