The rise of the “Taliban” movement in Afghanistan and its control over most of the country with the withdrawal of US forces from it, accompanied by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), gave hopes to a large number of extremists around the world, as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham controlled the part. The largest from the Syrian province of Idlib was one of the first to congratulate the movement, considering what happened a “great victory.”
Although Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which is considered the arm of the “Al-Qaeda” organization in Syria, welcomed the takeover of the “Taliban.” On Afghanistan, however, the possibility of it achieving quick gains from the movement at the present time seems “little”, according to what experts in the affairs of militant groups expect. The militants celebrate the return of the Taliban, despite all the contradictions between them, there is a tendency among these different groups to describe what happened in Afghanistan as a victory for the Islamic movement’s organizations.
He told Al-Arabiya.net that “the congratulatory messages that arrived at the Taliban from various regions may make it easier for them to search for legitimacy, but in practice it is difficult for Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and The Taliban support each other, as the first aims to remove its name from the list of terrorist organizations, and it can expect understanding from the international community by citing the experience of the Taliban, especially if the movement that maintains its links with Al-Qaeda is recognized, and therefore what prevents the same scenario from being repeated with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham which separated from al-Qaeda, although it will not be done easily.”
Elements of the Taliban (archive – Associated Press)
A safe haven
In addition, Afghanistan is likely to turn into a “safe haven” for terrorists once again, according to a political analyst who recalls the fall of the Taliban regime in 2001, saying “when the overthrow of the Taliban was overthrown.” At that time, foreign fighters dispersed and later gained strength in Iraq after the American invasion and then in Syria, and this contributed to the emergence of ISIS later, and today the opposite may happen, meaning that extremist fighters from scattered areas around the world return to Afghanistan as they gathered in Syria and Iraq in the past years.”
He also added, “Afghanistan may be a safe haven.”For the militants if their presence becomes threatened in Syria, for example, but this depends on the willingness of the Afghan movement, as it is not in a position to help the extremists outside its borders at the present time, so it may ask them to remain calm and not harm other countries from the lands that they control it if the Taliban really wants to make peace with the outside world.”
Fighters from Idlib to Afghanistan
Moreover, he stressed that “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham may benefit from the rise of the Taliban, with the presence of other fighting groups in Idlib that want The HTS, they are armed organizations dominated by foreigners such as Chechens, Uyghurs, Uzbeks and Tajiks who come from different countries, which means the possibility of sending its members to Afghanistan and keeping only the Syrian groups. If I managed to get rid of these foreign organizations, this means relieving Syrian and Russian pressure on Turkey, in accordance with the well-known Sochi agreements. Which requires the elimination of terrorist organizations in Idlib, especially since the HTS believes that getting rid of foreign fighters in its areas of control means avoiding Russian military attacks, and therefore it may resort to this option in coordination with Ankara, and thus it can say that the presence of militants in Idlib is limited to Syrian groups only
The reading does not differ Islam Ozkan, a political analyst who also specializes in the affairs of extremist groups, expressed Tashkin’s view of the mutual and potential benefit between the Taliban movement and “Tahrir al-Sham”. 2001, and this was an important turning point in its course through which it realized the cost of its support for Al-Qaeda, and therefore the most important clauses of the agreement it concluded with Washington later was the fight against terrorism and extremist movements such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS.”
The rise of organizations Extremist
He added to “Al Arabiya.net” that “the United States United has been negotiating with the Taliban for two years, and who knows, maybe negotiations on other issues are continuing between them, especially since those negotiations gave the Taliban great experience in diplomacy and politics, and therefore it does not seem logical to continue supporting and containing al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.
He continued: “Although a relatively introverted movement such as the Taliban, which has serious problems in integrating with the world, gives moderate messages, this may change with its dominance over the whole of Afghanistan, and then it may return to its old method of Supporting extremist movements in exchange for getting rid of their opponents, and in this case we could witness the rise of extremist organizations in other regions of the world, such as Syria and Iraq.”
In addition, the expert in the affairs of extremist groups considered that “ The Taliban’s return to its old style may be beneficial to Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham in the long run, and not at the present time, as conditions have changed in Syria and the group is now besieged in Idlib alone without an international consensus on how to find a solution to the problem of extremists there, which depends on the extent of the Taliban’s commitment to the terms of its agreement with
It is noteworthy that in early September, Washington announced the withdrawal of its last soldiers from Afghanistan after a war that lasted for nearly two decades, at a time when the “Taliban” movement controlled most of the country.)
Various extremist and extremist groups around the world congratulated the “Taliban” after its rapid expansion in Afghanistan last month, and the “Tahrir al-Sham” organization, which controls the largest part of the Syrian province of Idlib, was among the first of those groups.
