Why Iran Would Be the Biggest Foreign Policy Challenge of a Second Trump Presidency
Trump’s World Peace Promise
Donald Trump has promised his supporters that a vote for him in 2024 would bring world peace. He blames President Joe Biden for Russia’s assault on Ukraine and claims that Biden’s support for Ukrainian resistance could lead to a nuclear war with Moscow. However, Trump’s promise ignores the issue that would likely pose the biggest foreign policy challenge of a second Trump presidency: Iran.
Trump’s Handling of Iran
As president, Trump vetoed a bipartisan attempt to make it harder for him to order military action against Iran and reveled in torpedoing President Barack Obama’s landmark 2015 deal to limit Iranian nuclear development. Trump twice risked a war with Tehran during his last year in office. He first ordered the assassination of Iran’s top general and came close to launching another strike after losing the 2020 election.
The Current State of Relations Between Iran and the U.S.
Relations between Iran and the U.S. are currently tense. Trump’s decision to scrap the Obama-era deal led Iran to boost its nuclear capabilities, and the country could now build a nuclear weapon within months if it chose to. Meanwhile, U.S. forces and fighters aligned with Iran are in close quarters in the Persian Gulf and in Syria, where a suspected Iranian drone attack killed an American contractor in March. Post reporting suggests Iran is readying new assaults.
The Nuclear Issue
The nuclear issue has long been seen as the most likely source of an all-out conflict. U.S. presidents have always said they would consider a military response if Iran moved to develop a nuclear bomb, and Israel has also mooted the idea. Officials working on the issue say they are alarmed by Iran’s advances in enriching uranium and its approach to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Few people involved see hope of a real resolution to the question until after America’s 2024 election, which Trump could win if he becomes the GOP presidential nominee.
Trump’s Capacity to Handle the Issue Peacefully
Trump acknowledges the higher chances of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon and insists he knows how to keep that from happening. Yet in a second Trump term, the U.S.-Iran diplomacy that was at the heart of the last nuclear deal would be difficult to achieve both because of Tehran’s view of Trump and because of the extremely different circumstances from previous periods of negotiations. Meanwhile, Trump’s 2024 agenda would weaken guardrails on his approach to the delicate issue and make it hard to win foreign support that would enable a fresh agreement.
The Biden Administration’s Approach
Since taking office, the Biden administration has done little to ease U.S. sanctions against Iran. The U.S. and Iran have engaged in European-sponsored indirect talks, but Iran sought additional changes to the text of the proposal for restoring the deal, and the U.S. said it could not offer more. Meanwhile, the nuclear problem is getting worse, with Iran’s domestic crackdown and its support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine making engagement less politically palatable in the West.
The Future of U.S.-Iran Relations
Some are hoping for a modest thaw that involves some kind of halt on Iranian nuclear advances and signs of earnest, if limited, diplomacy. However, Iran’s program is at a very advanced stage, and there are concerns that it could trigger a major crisis in the region if it goes too far. With the possibility of a second Trump presidency, Iran would likely pose the biggest foreign policy challenge, and some experts believe Trump has little capacity to handle the issue peacefully.
