Pakistani military the authorities of the Peshawar Corps and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs were in negotiation in Kabul with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) through 57-member Representative Jirga of Wazir, Mehsud and other tribes since first a week of June 2022. As confidence-building measures, the two sides agreed to extend indefinitely already announced ceasefire.
This round of negotiation also with the assistance and mediation of Sirajuddin Haqqani, chief of Haqqani network and Acting Minister of the Interior of Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA), in addition to IEA intelligence, ministries of the interior and tribal affairs officials.
The EIA is under tremendous pressure from Pakistan, its supporter and interlocutor, to stick firmly to with TPP, whose cross-border attacks on security forces in April only caused over 120 deaths. Earlier, the IEA deployed TTP fighters to concentrate in Kunar Province (Afghanistan) for better oversight, like the disarmament of the TTP, naively proposed by some in Pakistan, this over ask. IEA split on strategy a business with TTP because: a) TTP uses support at the IEA for partnership during jihad against US/NATO forces; b) some conservatives in the IEA believe attack on non-Islamic TTP; c) the IEA simply does not have the capacity to deal with with significant number of TTP fighters present on afghan land; and d) IEA remains careful of an alliance between a disgruntled TTP and an IS-K/or Dai’sh.
Pakistan’s growing impatience with The TTP has been demonstrated by its cross-border air strikes on April 16 is year. The calculation of the TPP issue is calculated by the IEA. basic for its recognition or otherwise by Pakistan/other countries. attentive, mindful of this important lever, the pragmatic IEA want turn to this legacy problem. the IEA will also want extend its authority throughout Afghanistan, including the stronghold of the TTP in East; hence the IEA’s efforts to make the negotiations “at any cost” successful.
BUT grand jirga in The South Waziristan district formed a 35-member representative committee. on May 7 to lead the talks after the army gave the Mehsud tribe a deadline to evacuate area” in reopening order. Other participating jirgas from Malakand, Bajaur, Swat, etc. TTP side Qazi Muhammad Amir, Mufti Gofran, Commander Zarar, Omar Khalid Khorasani, Moulvi Fakir Mohammad, Dr. Hamoud, Mufti Abu Hurairah, Hilal Ghazi and Moulvi Asif are representing, while government presented senior/rating military and intelligence officials.
According to press reports, one of TPP requirements – collapse back former FATA merger with PDA (25th Constitutional Amendment), which created the newly amalgamated districts (NMD) bearing former agency names. The TTP seeks to replicate the agreement between Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah and tribal elders that guaranteed autonomy former VEIL. Supreme Court in 2020 recognized the submitted petition against 25th Constitutional amendment and issued notices government (Federal and CCP) and former FATA MPs. That case remains pending.
Other TTP requirements include prisoner release; presidential pardon for two key militant commanders, including TTP spokesman Swat Muslim Khan; as well as compensation for damage property and loss of life/limb as a result of Pakistani military operations. They are also want safe passage, freedom of movement and permits to keep weapons. TTP Malakand/Svat also needs implementation of Sharia Nizam-i-Adl in Malakand division.
As reported, various subcommittees are formed to assess damage beyond monitoring progress of negotiation. A representative committee of three would have smoothed over stubborn differences. Joint Arbitration Committee (Pakistani Security Forces, TTP and IEA) record progress of ground implementation in accordance with the instructions of the steering committee, etc. It is reported that the two parties agreed on a three-month implementation process.
In October last year, I wrote “Amnesty to the Pakistani Taliban – birds and stones.” Some relevant review in order. First, the TTP carries a lot of blood on their hands. Their vile attack on Army Public School in Peshawar on December 16, 2014 killing 150 people, of of which at least 134 were students are still alarmingly fresh. So, one hope our interlocutors use this is also as a quid pro quo to avoid concessions from the TPP, which is the norm in such cases, instead of spreading the blanket and unconditionally amnesty.
Secondly, TTP is always in bed with Afghan Intelligence Agency (NDS) and Indian RAW, as well as with their patronage from the CIA.
Third, the IEA needs to fulfill its repeated commitment to “not allow group or individual use afghan land for actions against any other country or organization.”
Fourth, the IEA need negative leverage of using TTP against Pakistan (at some point), given their immediate, short and longterm interests with and through Pakistan.
Five, TTP under baat (loyalty) to the leadership of the IEA. So, Nurwali Mehsud (TTP Amir since 2018) will not be able to defy any decree Amirul MomininMullah Khaibatulla Akhundzade, ordering termination of fighting against Pakistan from Afghan soil.
Geostrategically, no insurgency can survive without external sanctuaries and support; as well as with IEA in powerdries the Afghan swamp up and becomes more inhospitable for TTP. The rapprochement between Pakistan and the TPP helps the IEA consolidate its rule as it shrinks the ungoverned Afghan spaces.
Internally any offset back of TPP will balance out in more secular, promiscuous and mostly anti-government Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) in NMD and vice versa. Moreover, TTP, countless of about 13 parties with different ideologies and different levels of motivation, prone to internal cracks, combat fatigue loss of fighting spirit and social pressure.
Our interlocutors need ponder in good reintegration measures of armed TTP fighters back into Pakistani civilian life. This entails future good behavior is guaranteed by the tribe/kvom/family and so on, depending on where the frames come from. With the FATA disbanded and the FCR (Frontier Crimes Regulation) no longer in force, this will be difficult, if not impossible. some measure of coercion and should be at the disposal of the state/tribe to decide with ‘blackfighters.
TTP is used for over-ask. No concessions offered for non-compliance with the Constitution of Pakistan. TTP should know NMD reversion back in FATA is mandated by Parliament. it also must surrender weapons and avoid all ties with other armed groups. However, after due consideration/discussion, government maybe should withdraw troops from the former ZUPT, as required by the TTP, handing over all checkpoints to the Border Corps (PC) and the Border Police, like in in past.
Our negotiators need maintain composure and understand without any doubt that the tide in in favor of Pakistan. Therefore, undue haste, lending and unnecessary concessions should be avoided, even if negotiations drawn out.
Published in Express Tribune, 9 June.th2022.
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