Do you have less than 1 bitcoin (BTC) and do you think you are below average? It may not be so, according to data from one of the most recognized metrics analysts of the Bitcoin network, Willy Woo.
Through a series of tweets, published this Monday, July 5, Woo broke down the averages of bitcoin holding by long-term owner (saver or hodler , in bitcoiner lingo). Based on data from the firm Glassnode, the analyst shows how the figure declines over time, as more people start using BTC.
Currently, the researcher places the average bitcoins in the hands of each hodler at 0.69 BTC. Two years ago, the average stood at 1 BTC; in 2014, the figure was 10 BTC, while in 2011 each saver accumulated 100 BTC, on average. In 2009, when the history of bitcoin was just beginning, the figure reached 1,000 bitcoins per capita.
These analyst calculations are based on activity on the Bitcoin chain. For him, the figure falls to much lower levels if you include users who do not interact directly with the network, but maintain their funds through exchanges. In that case, the average would be 0.25 BTC per hodler .
If we divide the more than 18,750,000 BTC currently in circulation and the addresses that have balances greater than 0 in the Glassnode records, the figure would be less than 0.5 bitcoins, on average.
Woo added that, despite the decline in bitcoin averages, the figure has only risen, if it is denominated in dollars. In 2009, the average was less than $ 1,000. Now, it equals more than $ 8,000 (0.25 BTC) or $ 23,000 (0.69 BTC).
How much could you have in a world that massively adopts bitcoin?
It is defined in the Bitcoin code that, when all coins are mined, there can only be 21 million in circulation. This scarcity, which gives cryptocurrency deflationary properties unlike fiat money, makes many people believe that it can become a store of value worldwide.
At the end of last year, Woo himself estimated that by 2024 around 30% of the world’s population would have BTC. For that to happen, the researcher said at the time, only the current pace of adoption must be maintained. However, we are still well below those numbers.
Currently , Coin Metrics records show about 38 million Bitcoin addresses with at least some satoshis (minimum unit of BTC). Each address does not necessarily correspond to a person , because everyone (as is the case of exchanges, investment funds and institutions) can manage several addresses. That is, there are no more than 38 million people currently with some BTC in their possession.
According to data from the United Nations, by 2024 the barrier of 8,000 million people in the world. That is, there would have to be at least 2.4 billion people with BTC in their possession, for Woo’s estimates to be correct.
Assuming that, in the next few years, bitcoin maintains its upward adoption curve, and that the prediction ends up being confirmed, the average of BTC in the hands of each person would not even reach the 0.0008 bitcoins.
Coin Metrics records also show that, currently, more than 19 million addresses have more than 0.001 bitcoins . That is, all those addresses would have more BTC than the average in a hypothetical scenario where bitcoin reached a global scale and 3 out of 10 people in the world used it. Are you among that select group?
Bitcoin as long-term savings
Currently, It is common to see investors large and small refer to their long-term BTC holdings, and call themselves “hodlers.” The term was born from the idea of an investor from the early age of bitcoin. That person preferred to keep their funds rather than sell their BTC , despite a price drop that, at the time, took the cryptocurrency from 720 to 420 dollars, in 2013.
An error of that bitcoiner when wanting to write “i’m holding” (I’m holding on, in reference to the fall) gave birth to the term “hodl” as flag of Bitcoin enthusiasts to refer to the long-term holding of BTC, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
Comparing the amount of BTC that was required in its early days for an equivalence of at least $ 1,000 with what BTC currently represents, the appreciation of the cryptocurrency as a store of value seems to take hold over the years.
Some models of prediction place bitcoin in the future even exceeding one million dollars per unit. That would imply that the cryptocurrency will increase about 30 times with respect to its current price, over $ 34,000.
At the beginning of 2017, just over 4 years ago, when the bull run that led to cryptocurrency at $ 20,000, BTC barely exceeded $ 1,000. Since then, it has multiplied by 34 at the current price, and up to 64 times, if we take into account the historical maximum set in mid-April, above $ 64,000. That is, increases like that have already occurred in a few years.
According to models such as stock-to-flow , the cryptocurrency would have to approach $ 300,000 during this market cycle, while Woo himself has estimated that BTC would exceed $ 200,000 this year.
With current averages of holding of BTC that Woo threw via Twitter, each hodler would have between 50,000 and 75,000 dollars in bitcoins, on average, to reach those prices this same year.
Big whales control millions of BTC
Responding to another tweeter’s question, Woo calculated that there are currently about 2,000 bitcoin whales, or addresses that accumulate at least 1,000 BTC. The analyst argued that it is not necessarily about bitcoiners who adopted the currency early, but that this number of large accumulators corresponds essentially to institutions and exchanges.
Only exchange houses have in their power almost 2.5 million BTC (more than 13% of the bitcoins in circulation). According to data from Cryptoquant. Only Binance, the exchange with the largest volumes of trade in the world, has more than 570,000 of those bitcoins, as we recently reported in this newspaper.
If we add the total of BTC in the exchanges and the almost 1.5 million bitcoins in hands companies, investment funds and governments (according to data from BuybitcoinWorldwide), we will find that they have accumulated more than 20% of the bitcoins in the world.
With the growing institutional push, the accumulation of large investors seem to be trending higher. In other words, it will be increasingly difficult for small investors to get hold of a large portion.
