China’s reaction to Pelosi’s potential visit to Taiwan could be ‘unprecedented’, but chances are of military conflict still low, experts say

“I think the president meant that perhaps military was scared of my plane was shot down down or something like what. I don’t know Exactly,” Pelosi said.

On Sunday, former US secretary of State Mike Pompeo also weighted inoffering join Pelosi on her reporting trip.

Chinese government did not specify in public what “forceful measures” he plans to take, but some Chinese experts say that Beijing’s reaction could military component.

“China will respond with unprecedented countermeasures are the strongest it has ever taken since the Taiwan Strait crisis,” said Shi Yinhong, international connections professor at Renmin University of China.

Military conflicts in the Taiwan Strait in 1950s – decade after founding of communist China, with Beijing shelled several outlying islands controlled by Taipei on two separate cases.

last major crisis took place in 1995-1996, after then-Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui visited the United States. Angered by the visit, China fired missiles into the waters around Taiwan, and the crisis ended only after the US sent two aircraft carriers battle groups to area in strong show of support for Taipei.

“If Pelosi goes ahead with her visit, the United States will certainly prepare for a military response to possible Chinese military answer,” Shi said. “The situation between China and the US will be very tense.”

Beijing has signaled that things will be different this time around.

“It’s a completely different mode. in Beijing with Xi Jinping. China in position to be more pushy, to impose costs and consequences on countries that do not take into account the interests of China in them policy creation or action,” said Drew Thompson, guest senior research school employee Lee Kuan Yew of Public policy at the National University of Singapore.

“So in In this respect, China is very different from China when Newt Gingrich visited. in 1997”.

With Xi, a rising wave of nationalism swept China, and support for “reunion” with Taiwan – possibly force – runs high.

Hu Xijin, former editor of state-run nationalist tabloid Global Times and prominent hawkish voice in Chinese online expert, suggested that the warplanes of the Chinese Liberation Army should “escort” Pelosi’s plane to Taiwan and fly over island.

It would be a serious violation of Taiwan autonomy. As tensions on both sides of the Strait escalate to breaking point highest level in over the past decades, China has sent record numbers of military aircraft to self-proclaimed Taiwan air defense identification area, with Taiwan is taking off planes to warn them, but so far, PLA planes have not entered the island’s territorial airspace.

“If the Taiwanese military dares fire on PLA fighters, we will respond decisively with fire down Taiwanese warplanes or Taiwanese attack aircraft military bases. If USA and Taiwan want all-out war, then the moment comes for the liberation of Taiwan, ”wrote Hu.

While Hu’s belligerent remarks on Taiwan have long resonated with nationalist circles in China, they do not represent official position of Beijing (and some of Hu’s previous threats made against Taiwan has turned out be empty).

But like Thompson points out, fact that Hu’s statements were uncensored in China tightly controls media shows “certain degree of support among the Communist Party” — even if it is only for propaganda value.

Pelosi’s trip is said to come at a challenging time. for China. PLA celebrates its founding anniversary on August 1, when Xi, the most powerful leader in decades, preparing to break conventions and seek a third term at the 20th Congress of the ruling Communist Party this fall.

While politically sensitive timelines may trigger a stronger response from Beijing, he may also means that the party want to ensure stability and prevent things from falling out of control, experts say.

“Honestly, it’s not good time for Xi Jinping provoked military conflict right before the 20th party congress. it in Xi Jinping’s interest in rationally managing this and not provoking a crisis on Top of all other crises he has to deal with with”, Thompson said, referring to China’s slowdown. real property crisis, rising unemployment and permanent struggle to contain sporadic outbreaks under his zero-COVID-19 policy.

“So I think whatever they do will be measured, it will be calculated. more pressure on Taiwan but I think they will stop of anything that is particularly risky or could create conditions that they cannot control,” he said.

Shi, professor at Renmin University in Beijing agreed that tensions between the US and China are unlikely to escalate into full blown up military conflict.

“If things don’t out of random control in a way is not one can be predicted, no chance of a military conflict between the US and China,” he said.

But Shi said right now that it is hard to predict what China will do.

“This is a very difficult situation to handle. with. First, (Beijing) must resolutely take unprecedented countermeasures. Secondly, it must prevent military conflicts between the United States and China,” he said. — We wont know how everything will turn out before last minute.”