Europeans Reluctant to Take Sides in US-China Conflict

Survey Results

A new survey conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think tank shows that Europeans are hesitant to take sides in a potential conflict between the US and China. The survey, conducted in 11 EU countries, found that on average, only 23% of Europeans would want their country to take America’s side. Instead, most Europeans see China as a “necessary partner,” even if 70% believe that Russia and China are partners on the global stage.

Views on Russia and China

While Russia is increasingly viewed as an adversary or rival, a view held by 64% of respondents, only 37% in Italy and 17% in Bulgaria think Russia is an adversary. A majority of respondents in Bulgaria (62%) and Hungary (59%) view Russia as an “ally” or “partner” of their country.

Many in Bulgaria (51%), Austria (36%), and Hungary (32%) would like their country to re-establish a fully cooperative relationship with Russia once the war is over.

Europeans’ perception of China has remained unchanged compared to the results of the poll conducted in 2021. They do not see China as a power that challenges and wants to undermine Europe, and they do not buy into the “democracy versus autocracy” framework promoted by the Biden administration. Germany, Sweden, France, and Denmark are the only countries where the prevailing view is to see China as a “rival” or an “adversary”, rather than an “ally” or “partner”.

Sanctions and Risks

41% of respondents on average would be ready to sanction Beijing if it delivered weapons to Moscow, even if that meant seriously damaging Western economies. Respondents in Austria (45%), Hungary (44%), Italy (42%), Bulgaria (39%), and Germany (38%) were most likely to oppose such sanctions.

Many Europeans oppose the idea of Chinese ownership of key infrastructure, such as bridges or ports (65%), tech companies (52%), or newspapers (58%) in Europe.

EU-US Relations

With regards to the US, it’s mostly seen as a necessary partner. But when asked what impact, if any, the re-election of Donald Trump would have on EU-US relations, a majority of respondents (56%) stated they would be “weaker”.

Almost three-quarters (74%) believe that Europe cannot always rely on the US for its security, while only 8% say the US will always protect Europe.

Conclusion

ECFR researchers suggest that leaders should communicate better the risks of Europe’s interdependence on China and argue that excessive dependence on Chinese investment “will inhibit the EU’s ability to speak out on human rights and democracy”. They also urge leaders to prepare for various geopolitical scenarios and difficult decisions, and communicate the dangers of inaction.