Israel-Hamas Conflict: What Analysts Are Saying

Introduction

Political analysts are reacting to the Israel-Hamas conflict and contemplating the consequences as the fighting extends into a second day.

The Attack

On Saturday, Palestinian militant group Hamas launched a major attack on Israel by land, sea, and air. This offensive occurred during a Jewish holiday and the day after the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War.

Dan Steinbock, founder of global consultancy firm Difference Group, stated that the attack was not unexpected and marked the first major direct conflict within Israeli territory since the country’s founding.

Israel’s 9/11

Political analyst Ian Bremmer compared the attack to “Israel’s 9/11” due to its scale. He noted that Israel is currently in a strong geopolitical position with the normalization of ties with various nations through the Abraham Accords.

Bremmer suggested that Hamas may have engaged in this level of unprecedented attacks against Israel due to their refusal to accept Israel’s right to exist and the changing politics of the region.

Intelligence Failure

Bremmer highlighted that the attack revealed a massive intelligence failure for Israel, which he attributed to the government’s recent judicial reforms. The Iron Dome defense system, which has a high success rate, was bypassed by some of Hamas’ rockets.

According to Bremmer, the political turmoil caused by the judicial reforms had distracted Israeli intelligence and military.

Impact on Relations

The conflict is expected to derail a U.S.-brokered negotiation between Israel and Saudi Arabia to establish formal relations. The violence has also emphasized the need for conflict management and mediation in the Palestinian issue.

Saudi Arabia has expressed its opposition to the attacks and called for de-escalation.

Potential Spread of Conflict

As of now, the conflict is primarily between Gaza and Israel, with no sign of involvement from Iran or Hezbollah. Former deputy governor at the Bank of Israel, Zvi Eckstein, stated that the global impact is limited unless Iran is found to have aided Hamas in planning the attacks.

If there is evidence of Iranian involvement, it could lead to Israeli strikes against Iranian military and potentially an expansion of the war.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group has confirmed launching attacks on Israeli territory, which may further escalate the conflict.