The Decision to Leave

The leadership of the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh has informed Reuters that the 120,000 ethnic Armenians residing there will leave for Armenia. Their decision stems from their unwillingness to live as part of Azerbaijan and their fear of ethnic cleansing.

The Background

Nagorno-Karabakh is a territory internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. However, it has been beyond the control of Azerbaijan since the collapse of the Soviet Union. After a swift military operation by the much larger Azerbaijani military, the Armenians of Karabakh were compelled to declare a ceasefire on September 20.

Azerbaijan’s Assurances

Azerbaijan has stated that it will protect the rights of the Armenian population and integrate the region. Nevertheless, the leadership of the Armenians in Karabakh has expressed their intention to leave, citing the strong opposition of their people to living as part of Azerbaijan.

The Armenians’ Concerns

Azerbaijan has repeatedly denied any intention to harm the Armenians. However, David Babayan, an adviser to the president of the self-styled Republic of Artsakh (another name for Nagorno-Karabakh), affirms that the majority of their people prefer to leave their historic lands. The exact timeline for their departure via the Lachin corridor, which connects the territory to Armenia, remains uncertain.

The Consequences

The exodus of the Armenians from Karabakh will mark a significant development in the tumultuous history of the region, which has experienced the influence of various powers throughout the centuries. This mass departure could also disrupt the delicate power balance in the South Caucasus region, an area characterized by a mix of ethnicities and intersecting oil and gas pipelines, where Russia, the United States, Turkey, and Iran vie for influence.

The Position of Azerbaijan and Armenia

Azerbaijan, a predominantly Muslim country, has stated that the Armenians, who are Christians, are free to leave if they so desire. On the other hand, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has urged them to stay unless their safety is compromised.

Current Situation

The process of disarming the ethnic Armenian fighters is currently underway. Additionally, medical evacuations from the breakaway region are expected to take place on Sunday. To address the urgent need for provisions, humanitarian aid from Russia and the International Committee of the Red Cross, including 150 tons of cargo and 65 tons of flour, has arrived in the region.