PAKISTAN thrives population out of tune with his natural features. environmental stress caused imbalance between fast population growth and limited natural resources one of the most frightening but least discussed realities that we face. Our already rocking economy — one which can barely create the three million additional jobs required each year. for new coming to work force – collides with added the threat of lack of water and land. It’s the perfect storm waiting in the wings – or clouds already burst?
rises in temperatures associated with climate change and decline in rain, capture public attention and tend to overshadow the underlying and growing threat of erosion of estimated size of the natural resource base that underpins Pakistan’s National Conservation Strategy approved in 1992. Despite the rapidly growing population was part of in the strategy policy did not foresee that population growth rates will remain high, and we add another 120 million population between 1981 and 2017. We are expected add at least another 120 m by 2050.
first anxiety bell is a shrinking water base. One direct manifestation of in nature-population you can see the imbalance in severe decline in water availability per capita from 2150 m3 or CM to 860 cm between 1980 and 2017. A few simple calculations confirm this trend will continue: total availability of water resources in Pakistan currently estimated at 178 billion cubic meters (BCM). AT current growth rateour population will increase to 242 m by 2025 and to 290 m by 2035. If we do not improve our ability to store and save water, per capita water availability will fall to scarcity levels of 730cm in 2025 and 600cm in 2035.
second a glaring imbalance in shrinking land base for agriculture and increase need for food production. The rural areas were hit hardest due to lack of water, and decline in cultivated land per capita from 0.5 acres in 1980 to 0.2 in 2017. Another striking trend is that while 62% of those who work in agricultural land in 2005 equivalent share was down up to 49 pcs. in 2020. These changes one directly impacts on livelihoods, as evidenced by the reduction in the size of agriculture as a source of income.
In Pakistan, the climate and population pressure in the end lead to a shortage in food.
Rural to urban migration is an immediate result of rural stress caused depletion of natural resources, shrinking economic opportunities and a sharp increase in numbers looking for work. Migration driven by reduced agricultural opportunities and attractiveness of sell rural land in answer to population pressure is an adaptation strategy. However, carefully considered policy is required to reduce stress on cities and towns that were not originally planned for this level of population increase. Improved public provision of services in small towns in reduce migration stress on major urban centers definitely required.
Urban population growth than in rural areas, which increases the environmental challenges and causes a deficit. in urban areas. Fast urban growth was result of high urban fertility pace and rapid migration from rural to urban areas until the late 1980s, when urban fertility betting has finally begun decline. As a result rate of urban growth in 1951–1972 At their peak, they were close to 5% per year compared to rates in rural areas. of 3.5 pcs. Urban growth rates have declined since 1981 but remain more than 1 piece up to 2 pcs. higher than in rural areas due to internal migration. urban population It has already rose from 24 m to 76 m between 1980 and 2017 and will surpass the rural population by 2045.
Population growth is leading massive crowding, high population density and scarcity of to land build because of pressure of additional demand for Frame. Number of housing units in urban areas have disappeared up from 3.6 million to 12 million units between 1980 and 2017. of Frame demand is leading to steep climbs in real real estate expenses and conversion of rural and zoned areas into housing projects.
Design forward by 2050 we expect 100 million. more Pakistanis will live in urban areas, even if there is a moderate decline in family the size in cities. But high population density and pressure on already constricted city municipal limits will continue to overload limited facilities, especially plumbing for domesticated use and sanitation.
In Pakistan, the climate and population pressure in the end lead to a shortage in nutrition due to negative impact on our ecology and biodiversity and possibly also livelihoods, exacerbating inequalities. Already better off regions like irrigated plains of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa will build sustainability against the vagaries of the climate, while poorer deserts and rainfed regions in rural Sindh and Balochistan will succumb to the pressure. Rising inequality can lead to huge regional tensions based on constantly growing competition for largely limited resources and livelihood opportunities. perspective of escalation of water disputes is inevitable.
Will Pakistan be able to break this vicious cycle by following the example of several others countries in this is region where are the breakthroughs of scienceadaptation in agriculture, energy use and management, and economic adaptation took over? It is important that most, if not all of them, not also must fight with pernicious effect of high population growth rates. downgrade of population growth rates that are clearly neglected national priority would significantly reduce this pressure and mitigate economic and political threats.
issue requires immediate policy attention and funding for implementation of Tip 2018 of Plan approved by the common interest of Actions to overcome rapid population growth. new national narration on population, which has been endorsed by religious, political and civil society leaders, maintains a balance between resources and population numbers. What could be more critical how need to highlight the harmful effects of large, uncontrollably growing population, which is completely contrary to with natural resources that we have?
The author is the Regional Director of the Population Council of Islamabad.
Published in Dawn, June 6, 2022
