Competition for the electrification of passenger cars is accelerating. The market for electric cars promises to be a watershed year in 2024, as battery prices are expected to exceed a key consumer threshold. This year, they will account for 56 percent of total vehicle sales. According to our research, in 2050, 875 million electric cars, 70 million electric commercial vehicles and 5 million fuel cell vehicles will travel on the roads. This will increase the number of zero-emission vehicles to 950 million by the middle of the century, “wrote Prachi Mehta, chief analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Sales of internal combustion vehicles, including micro- and light hybrids, will fall by 20% of global sales by 2050. Almost half of the remaining explosive engine fleet will be in Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, Russia and the Caspian region, despite the fact that these markets account for only 18 percent of the global vehicle fleet that year.
The policy of net zero energy consumption is transforming the global environment. Countries that account for more than 50 percent of global car sales and automakers, which account for 80 percent of global sales, have expressed a desire to be carbon neutral, and many have developed concrete plans to achieve this.
Wood Mackenzie together, the five leading EV car manufacturers forecast – Tesla, Volkswagen, General Motors, Nissan-Renault and Hyundai – have committed to annual sales of 8.9 million battery EVs by 2030, representing nearly half of the global battery EV sales forecast by the market research firm. Companies will reach 39 percent of the target by this time, with Tesla’s ambition to sell 20 million a year by 2030 severely skew the success rate. Without Tesla, the other four carmakers would reach 79 percent of their target sales by 2030, PV Magazine reported.
Although Tesla is currently at the forefront, with just over half a million electric vehicle has been sold, other OEMs, especially Volkswagen, are facing increasingly fierce competition. According to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis, Volkswagen will overtake Tesla by the mid-2020s and will sell nearly 3 million electric vehicles annually by 2030. Tesla will lag behind by nearly 1.5 million vehicles. Nissan-Renault and Hyundai are also ahead of Tesla in annual sales by the end of the decade. General Motors’ absence from Europe will be significant in the next decade and the company will be ranked fifth in terms of global sales
Lack of charging infrastructure and high prices are cited as obstacles to the widespread use of electric vehicles. Progress is being made on both fronts: the expected price of batteries used in electric cars is steadily declining. We expect the 100 UDS / kWh threshold to be reached by 2024, one year earlier than previously expected
By 2030, residential and public recharging points the number increases to 58 million and 6 million, respectively. The cumulative investment value of the sector is expected to be $ 57 billion and $ 111 billion, respectively, between 2020 and 2030.
Consumers are also monitoring the economy. And while most of them are driven in no small part by climate concerns, the financial benefits of switching to zero-emission, plug-in hybrid and battery-powered electric cars also play a role. In the luxury sedan segment, selling price parity with internal combustion vehicles has already been achieved and will extend beyond this segment, ahead of the original forecasts. This change will accelerate the spread of electric vehicles
The rapidly changing transport environment requires new strategies. As traditional automakers enter the EV competition, they will expand their role by investing in cell and battery manufacturing, mines and charging infrastructure instead of a simple automaker role. Vertical integration will be key to keeping the supply of materials needed to keep costs low and support growth.
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