We’ve got some great games in MLB action on Sunday with the Astros, Brewers and Padres all trying to complete series sweeps on the road. We break down the odds and betting trends for those matchups and give you our best bets in the MLB Daily Line Drive.
HOUSTON ASTROS AT SEATTLE MARINERS (+150, 8 at FanDuel)
The top two teams in the AL West standings meet up for the third game of their series in T-Mobile Park.
The Mariners come into this game number one in the majors in both runs scored (7.29 per game) and homeruns, but they’ve lost the first two games of their series with the Astros by a combined score of 7-13.
These teams play completely different against quality opposition, with the Mariners 1-4 in their most recent five games against teams with records over .600, and the Astros 10-3 on the road in their last 13s against teams with winning percentages over .600.
Good news for the Mariners though, Marco Gonzales and his 4-0 record will step to the rubber for today’s game. Bad news for the Mariners, Gonzales’ 1.21 WHIP isn’t impressive and he was absolutely rocked against the Astros last season. He gave up 18 hits and 11 earned runs with a WHIP of 2.22 in just under nine innings versus Houston batters in 2018.
Astros pitcher Gerrit Cole is winless in his first three starts of the season despite an ERA of 3.32 and a WHIP of 1.00. Against the Mariners last season, Cole went 1-2 with an ERA of 2.77 and a WHIP of 1.12. With the Astros also having one of the best bullpens in the bigs, back them to pull of the win on the runline and get the series sweep today.
Prediction:Houston -1.5 (-108)
NEW YORK METS AT ATLANTA BRAVES (-122, 8.5 at FanDuel)
It’s a Jacob deGrom Day which means one of the most reliable bets is once again on the board.
Yes, deGrom got dinged for six runs and eight hits in four innings last Tuesday, but he’s still one of the best arms in the business and betting the Under on games DeGrom starts is still too good a bet to pass up. Even with the Over in that game, the Under first five innings has cashed in 25 of Jacob deGrom’s last 30 starts. That’s an 83.3 percent cash rate!
Even with Julio Teheran on the mound for Atlanta (6.00 ERA through three starts), take the first five innings Under today.
Prediction:First 5 innings – Under 4.5 runs scored (+106)
Yesterday’s picks: 0-0-1 (A’s-Rangers game postponed)
Season to date: 15-16-2
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STREAKING AND SLUMPING STARTERS
Charlie Morton Tampa Bay Rays (2-0, 2.25 ERA, $101)
For the second day in a row we have a Rays pitcher here. The former Astro has been lights out in Tampa Bay, striking out 21 batters in 16 innings so far in 2019. He must be licking his chops against a Blue Jays lineup that ranks near the bottom of the league in scoring with 3.47 runs per game and batting average at .201.
The Under is 12-2 in the Jays last 14 games at home and 10-4-1 in the Rays last 15 overall.
Jose Urena, Florida Marlins (0-3, 9.22 ERA, -$300)
From one Sunshine State pitcher to another, Urena has been getting lit up this season which is probably music to the ears of some baseball fans – especially ones in Atlanta. His WHIP is at 2.12 and opposing batters have a .369 BA against the Dominican right-hander.
Today he faces off against a formidible Phillies lineup which ranks in the top-10 of the league in both runs scored and OPS. Over the last three years, Urena has allowed 11 homeruns to Philly batters, more than any other team in the league. This season, 17 of Philadelphia’s 18 homers have come off right-handed pitchers.
TURNING AROUND A TREND
This afternoon’s contest between the Oakland A’s and Texas Rangers will feature two starting pitchers who are off to strong starts this season. But while Oakland hurler Brett Anderson has an ERA of 2.50 and Rangers righty Adrian Sampson has an ERA of 1.86, there are strong Over trends in play for this matchup.
The A’s are 6-0 to the Over in their last six games, and 4-1-1 to the Over in Anderson’s previous six starts. The Rangers are 8-3 O/U in their last 11 games in Arlington while the O/U is also 4-0 in the last four games in the head-to-head.
DODGERS DOWNWARD TURN
After starting the season off strong thanks to their heavy hitting, the Dodgers have crashed back to earth. L.A. has lost six games in a row while averaging only 3 runs per game during that stretch. Today the Dodgers try to avoid getting swept at home in their series against the Brewers. The Dodgers are also just 1-5 in pitcher Ross Stripling’s last six starts while the Brewers are 7-2 in Jhoulys Chacin’s last nine.
THE UMPIRE BACKS STRIKES
Umpire Manny Gonzalez has called three games this season, and all three cashed in on the Under with just 5.33 total runs scored per contest. Gonzalez has called an average of 18.67 strikouts per game, compared to 6.33 walks per game. Today Gonzalez will be calling the game between Cleveland and the Kansas City Royals, with the total set at 7.5 thanks to Cleveland ace Corey Kluber.
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